The Next Great Thing™ will not make a number of users that is significant to any real world scenario move away from Windows. The only approach that might have a chance to do that is something to looks and feels as close as possible to Windows. Yes even the parts of Windows that are bad. All of it, except the most glaringly obviously horrible stuff (like ads in menus). And that also includes all the programs a significant number of users care about either running there out of the box without having to jump through any hoops or a replacement fulfilling the same “looks, feels and operates almost identical” criteria.

People care about something feeling familiar and not having to relearn stuff a lot more than about shiny new features.