Comment on The Washington Post Wants You To Think the Economy Is Awful #45,706
unconfirmedsourcesDOTgov@lemmy.sdf.org 6 months ago
How surprised should we be, really, when a media outlet owned and operated by one of the richest people in the world is advancing the narrative that the existing status quo is detrimental to the average person during an election year?
To be clear, an individual’s anecdotal experience in the economy will not match up perfectly with the data. Yes - the prices for food and housing have increased faster than we would have liked. However, policymakers are only able to account for a small adjustment in policy recommendations based on anecdotes.
At the national level - in Congress or at the Federal Reserve - large volumes of data are necessarily collected and analyzed to create an aggregate picture of the economy. Individual policymakers are encouraged to argue about the best or most accurate measures to use, and different leaders will point to different measures as evidence to support their proposals, but ultimately these are the drivers of economic policy.
While yes, I would support prices returning to 2019 levels, I’ve studied enough history to understand that this is not the nature of a market economy. We can stand around all day bemoaning the state of things or we can accept the situation as it is provided to us and figure out the path forward.
I see the types of articles highlighted by OP as bad-faith reporting on the economy with the goal of increasing pessimism about the economy more broadly, riling up our Keynesian Animal Spirits to expect bad outcomes, rather than pointing out the good policy measures and reasons for optimism like the OP did.
BearOfaTime@lemm.ee 6 months ago
Ah, yes, pissing on my back and telling me it’s raining, followed by telling us we can’t possibly understand it, so we’re wrong.
Ffs, the economy is tanking, with major metrics showing it for years now.
unconfirmedsourcesDOTgov@lemmy.sdf.org 6 months ago
Not at all, I don’t know you, but I’m fairly certain you could understand it if you took the time to. The point I am making is that there is a disconnect between the way that policymakers view the economy (robust and steady growth) and the way that journalists have been reporting on it (doom, gloom, impending disaster).
I retrospect, my initial argument was fairly tinfoil hat. Another explanation could be that fear and anger brings eyeballs and since WaPo, in addition to many other legacy outlets that still regularly print on physical paper, is effectively underwater from a business standpoint, the editor may feel that sensational headlines are important for growth. Their new CEO has pedigree as a Murdoch crony, and this tactic is in line with the way that outlets on the far right have gotten engagement, so it isn’t difficult to imagine mandating a similar strategy.
As the OP explained in their piece, “major metrics” are showing the opposite of what you, and outlets such as WaPo, are suggesting. We have seen several “major metrics” trending in a positive direction such as real wage growth and unprecedented levels of employment. Sure, the economy isn’t perfect for everyone, but where we’ve identified gaps, in some cases thoughtful policies, such as income-driven repayment plans for student loans, have been introduced.
Yes, housing costs are too high. This is ubiquitous throughout the developed world. Yes, too much wealth has been redistributed to the ultra-wealthy, and this has detrimental effects throughout the economy. But to suggest that, “the economy is tanking”, without providing any argument to support it other than “major metrics” doesn’t resonate with me at all.
sj_zero 6 months ago
One of the risks of controlling to a certain number is that the number eventually stops being indicative of anything other than the degree to which it is controlled.
Inflation is higher than the government pretends, which changes everything. One example of this is housing which has become a dominant part of most people's budgets. Another example is food -- someone compared the cost of fast food in 2024 to fast food in 2019, and it's many multiples higher in cost. Those two things alone make up a large portion of people's budgets so changes to those prices represent mass inflation to people.
If we measured inflation the same way we did in 1990, first of all inflation measurements have been at least double what they have been, and second of all that increased inflation totally changes the story of "the greatest economic expansion on record". Instead it tells a story of 2008s financial crisis never ending.
https://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
The "official numbers" are bullshit. They stop reporting crime so crime claims to have gone down. They change the inflation numbers so inflation stays down. They post numbers they don't even believe then quietly revise them down after the press hoopla goes away month after month. We're all supposed to ignore the growing homeless camps everywhere.
I mean... The Soviet Union was doing better than ever before until the moment in 1992 it ceased existing.
unconfirmedsourcesDOTgov@lemmy.sdf.org 6 months ago
Someday I’ll stop feeding the trolls, but apparently today is not that day.
Alright, first up, do a quick Google for anecdotal fallacy and consider whether you may have inadvertently fallen into that.
Second, you seem to simultaneously be arguing that the government is somehow omnipotent and impotent at the same time - which is it? Either the government is carefully manipulating the economy to hit the numbers we’re controlling for or they don’t have a clue how to calculate inflation but I can’t see how they could do both simultaneously.
Third - calculating inflation - how do you think we should be doing it? You state that the government is pretending it is lower than a true reflection of reality but don’t seem to have a perspective on why that is. At one point you’re suggesting that it’s high because fast food prices went up, then you go on to say that things would be better if we measured it like we did 35 years ago. What are you proposing, exactly, and how would your proposal leave us better off?
Let’s say for a moment that I agree with you and the “official numbers” are bullshit. How, exactly, would you like policymakers to make decisions if they have no data upon which to base their decision? Should we expect our leaders to simply rely on their gut instinct?
Not going to comment on crime stats, but I can’t stop myself from asking about, “They change the inflation numbers so inflation stays down.” what do you mean by this? Do you think that the BLS publishes an inflation figure and the entire market economy shifts to conform to that number? I simply can’t.
Regarding housing - yes, we don’t have enough of it. This is something people are running into all around the world and it isn’t unique to the US. I’m certainly not suggesting that it isn’t something worthy of being addressed, but what does it have to do with the Washington Post?