Comment on Brexit’s Lasting Damage Is Looking Inescapable
KidnappedByKitties@lemm.ee 3 months agoPlease provide a source.
According to Worldbank GDP/capita increased from '94-07, dove with the financial crisis, rose again until 2014, and then dove with Brexit, then dove with Covid/hard Brexit. Almost recovered 21, but is currently trending slightly downward, probably hobbled by war making recovery efforts difficult.
Brexit seems to have set the economy back about 5-6 years of growth, and is also dampening new growth (making recovery slower).
The data does not support your conclusion.
YungOnions@sh.itjust.works 3 months ago
Sure! Here’s the ONS data for GDP: www.ons.gov.uk/economy/…/ukea
Here’s the ONS data for Productivity: www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/…/prdy
I was wrong on my dates; however. It’s more like 2008 rather than 2003, so ties in with the financial crisis.
You also miss my point. I’m not arguing whether Brexit did or didn’t affect our economy, I’m pointing out that the data shows we had economic issues long before 2020, and so pointing the finger of blame solely at Brexit is missing the wider picture.
Also, whilst I don’t disagree re. your comments on recovery, it’s worth bearing in mind that Foreign Direct Investment in the UK remains respectably high as of 2022: unctad.org/node/41440
KidnappedByKitties@lemm.ee 3 months ago
Thank you for providing sources.
I’m still not clear how your data supports "having issues pre-2020, your data only shows a 2008 dip, which we’ve explained as a one-off event that UK recovered from before the dip 2020. There’s no Brexit dip, which seems suspect, but I’m unwilling to trawl through raw data sources and so will cede that maybe it didn’t dip in 2014.
Then we still have the 2019-2020 dip, which coincides with Covid and Hard Brexit. Covid effects aren’t expected until 2020, whereas Brexit ones would be felt 2019. Even if we disagree about why, I see no no indication at all in your data, that there were problems pre-2020, no significant dip in neither GDP nor productivity. So where does your conclusion come from?
YungOnions@sh.itjust.works 3 months ago
If you extrapolate out a trend line from pre-2008 to now on the GDP graph you’ll see that the position where we would have been prior to the financial crash is higher than our current position. The same is true on the productivity chart, albeit a lot closer. My point it that we were already in a bad point prior to Brexit.
See, for example, ONS graphs for unemployment: www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/…/lms
Or adjusted pay: www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/…/lms
That’s all I’m saying. The issue with with placing that blame exclusively at the feet of Brexit a) ignores the inherent difficulty in separating the economic affects of Covid and Brexit and b) shifts blame from decades of economic and political missteps by our government and onto an convenient scapegoat. The whole things a mess, but Brexit cannot be viewed in isolation.
Hacksaw@lemmy.ca 3 months ago
If your extrapolate a line during the run up to ANY recession you’ll create a line that never gets hit again. Your extrapolation theory reminds me of this Trump “extrapolating” a hurricane path