m0darn@lemmy.ca 11 months ago
Another way of thinking about it is betting your entire bankroll for 99.9…% certainty that you will win $1.
Say you go into the casino with $1000.
Bet:
$1 lose. $3 lose. $9 lose. $27 lose. $81 lose. $243 lose. $729 oh wait you can't bet that much, you only have $457 left. Dang, do you bet $457 or find another $272? Bet $457 and you win $914! Congrats you're now only down $86! Or maybe you lost and are down $1000. Or maybe you scrounged up $272 so you could keep playing Bet 729 and lose. Now you're down $1272. Or Bet 729 and you win 1458. Pay back the $272 you borrowed from your buddy, you're still up $186. You just bet $729 dollars for a %50 chance of winning $186.
But what are the chances of getting 6 or 7 losses in a row? 1 in 64, or 128 respectively, actually worse because roulette wheels aren’t 50/50, they’re 18/19 (18 wins and 19 losses in 37 plays on average) or worse. So losing 6 times in a row will happen 1 in 54 plays, 7 losses is 1 in 106.
Google says roulette wheels spin 55 times per hour so with your strategy you will lose your bank roll in about one hour assuming your starting bet is 0.1% of your bank roll.
Anticorp@lemmy.world 11 months ago
I tried the Martingale Strategy in my early 20’s, thinking I had invented a system that would actually beat the house. I was playing $1 roulette, and had a budget of $100. I did manage to win $400ish, and then I lost 12 times in a row. I busted on the 9th loss, and went back to betting $1 just to see how long it would take to win. I would have needed $4096 to stay in the positive, and I would have won $1 on that last bet.