If something has a 1 in 100M chance of happening to someone, you’d expect that about 80 people in the world now have had that thing happen to them.
If something has a 1 in 100M chance of happening to someone, you’d expect that about 80 people in the world now have had that thing happen to them.
surewhynotlem@lemmy.world 6 months ago
Don’t mistake statistics for reality. Statistics describe reality, they don’t dictate it.
In this situation, there could be a 1:100M chance for any random investor to be this successful. Or there could be a 1:3 chance but you need to meet specific criteria, which he and only a few others have.
You can’t describe a situation with dice rolls unless you’re very sure what kind of dice you’re rolling.
CoggyMcFee@lemmy.world 6 months ago
I was responding to purely hypothetical odds that someone just made up, in which case things can be as complicated or simple as one wants them to be.
But even if I were making an actual prediction based on real statistical data, I am not sure why you would think that having an expectation of the approximate distribution of something given its statistical likelihood is “mistaking statistics for actual reality”.