That’s the thing with odds though. In any random chance distribution of 100 people, there will be 1 ranked higher than the other 99. We as a society ignore the 99 and focus on the 1 “genius” but statistically someone was going to be in that spot. If he wasn’t lucky he just wouldn’t be famous.
grayman@lemmy.world 9 months ago
So you think it’s most likely random chance that this guy that’s literally a 1 in a 100M for wealth got rich?
CoggyMcFee@lemmy.world 9 months ago
If something has a 1 in 100M chance of happening to someone, you’d expect that about 80 people in the world now have had that thing happen to them.
surewhynotlem@lemmy.world 9 months ago
Don’t mistake statistics for reality. Statistics describe reality, they don’t dictate it.
In this situation, there could be a 1:100M chance for any random investor to be this successful. Or there could be a 1:3 chance but you need to meet specific criteria, which he and only a few others have.
You can’t describe a situation with dice rolls unless you’re very sure what kind of dice you’re rolling.
CoggyMcFee@lemmy.world 9 months ago
I was responding to purely hypothetical odds that someone just made up, in which case things can be as complicated or simple as one wants them to be.
But even if I were making an actual prediction based on real statistical data, I am not sure why you would think that having an expectation of the approximate distribution of something given its statistical likelihood is “mistaking statistics for actual reality”.
Knock_Knock_Lemmy_In@lemmy.world 9 months ago
One guy has to be the world’s luckiest investor. It just so happens this guy is called Warren.