Comment on Australian governments subsidising fossil fuel use by more than $30,000 a minute, analysis finds
shads@lemy.lol 1 week agoI’m not going to get too deeply into this because frankly I am not qualified. However people who I know that are well informed have talked about what it will take to overcome the cost and lead time issues with nuclear. Apparently there are two methods, one is we all agree to pay, A LOT, to cover the capital expenditure required to get a functional nuclear grid off the ground. The other involves a time machine and a jaunt back to the late 70s early 80s to squeeze an extra generation of nuclear R&D in.
Nuclear is either a great long term goal, or a smoke screen.
Just using publicly available figures, in 2025 worldwide nuclear generated 2667 TWh. In 2024 Australias energy generation was 265 TWh. So we would need to generate 10% of the total worldwide nuclear output just to supply demand in Australia. That’s a phenomenal amount of construction we would need just to match today’s demand.
Plus have you seen the amount of material involved in constructing a nuclear powerplant, they don’t grow on trees and they are certainly not small. And yes I know we get to talk about SMRs now, they aren’t ready yet, and will only ever be a component in an energy mix.
Inevitably when we talk about 20-50 year lead times and trillion dollar investments to meet current demand if we go nuclear the offered solution is to maintain coal and gas, put all that together and the economy and ecology arguments don’t seem to hold water.
Plus you seem to assume renewable generation and storage technology are not improving at a rate of knots. Or that we can’t recycle and remanufacture. Plus as we are all about to experience, local production and distribution are often significantly more resilient than highly centralised networks.
Australia should have owned solar technology, we did so much of the initial work to make it mass manufacturable but we as a Country gave up on it because the people who actually make money off our resources didn’t want anything upsetting the coal applecart. It’s too late for us to be the technology and industrial leaders in this sector, let’s not fail to embrace it as consumers just so we can continue to line the same pockets.
Plus so much of this is ideological. I honestly have no fixed preference when it comes to which technology we use going forward. If a sound case could be made for nuclear energy being the absolute best way to go forward I would give it my full backing, but it’s just not there. And I really don’t want my power to be 8x more expensive at wholesale level (who knows how much on my power bill) just so team nuclear gets to have the win.
FreedomAdvocate@lemmy.net.au 5 days ago
We don’t need to generate 100% of our power via nuclear though.
The best time to start building nuclear was decades ago. The next best time is now.
shads@lemy.lol 5 days ago
Cool, you footing the bill? Because the upfront costs of building out enough nuclear to replace just the current coal plants is going to lead to skyrocketing energy costs. But if you can front the billions it would cost nobody is going to stop you. However what is your plan for the next 15+ years it would take to build the fleet of nuclear powerplants? Since you have decided renewables are evil is the plan to ban them from being deployed while we build out nuclear, keep burning coal and gas during that time? Renewables keep getting cheaper to deploy, are you going to institute a world wide ban on further R&D until Australia finishes its nuclear rollout so we don’t have the equation slipping further into imbalance.
Also our power grids are actively degrading under neglect thanks to deregulation and asset sales, you going to renationalise all that so we can rationalise & remediate transmission costs or are we labouring under the misguided hope that we won’t have bad actors trying to profiteer off the lines and poles?
I get it, I wish we had got onboard with nuclear back when the economics would have made it a home run and social anxiety was the biggest blocker, we missed that boat and now the paradigm has shifted.
I fully believe nuclear should have a role in our energy market, but instituting a regressive authoritarian society to make it a reality just doesn’t seem like a smart decision.
FreedomAdvocate@lemmy.net.au 4 days ago
It’s cheaper than what “renewables” are costing us.
Other countries are building nuclear plants for less than $10bil in less than 7 years.
shads@lemy.lol 4 days ago
You keep asserting that, could you provide some sources for that assertion. Everything I am reading says that you need to commit to a major nuclear program and get everything right to approach the cost of renewables. Adding to this the advances are coming thick and fast, across the range of renewables and storage technologies, more efficiencys and cost savings. The only viable way I have heard of to improve the cost efficiencies of Nuclear is to extend the operational life span of the plants, and those efficiencies will only be realised once the extension is made to the service life of the plant (plus let’s be honest the private owners of the plants by that stage will just soak that up as extra profit).
So if we are going to build out these phenomenally expensive projects we are going to need a fair assurance that the funders and then the operators are going to see a return on investment. If renewables keep being cheaper to deploy, if recycling becomes more efficient, if battery storage prices fall. All of this hurts the viability of Nuclear, and will certainly impact the public will to keep throwing vast amounts of money at infrastructure. The other countries who are building out nuclear capacity on accelerated time frames and lower costs, how many of them are operating within a regulatory framework that corresponds with Australia’s? How many of them are adding additional capacity to existing Nuclear, rather than starting from scratch? How many of them are not budgeting for lifecycle and just assuming they will find the money to decomission when they have to, instead of building that cost in during the operational life of the plants?
How do you plan on convincing people like my father-in-law who hasn’t drawn from the grid in more than a year to be cool that his powerbill will be going up for a service he only keeps connected to sell his excess power? That’s where the regressive authoritarian bit came from, you are going to have to shutdown kw scale solar as it will be too much of a danger to the under construction nuclear industry.
You seem really bent out of shape with the whole renewable thing, no technology is entirely benign to the environment, but if we keep on advancing the tech here we are going to continue to see positive change. Plus it seems so much more feasible to recycle a dead solar panel or battery vs the shielding of a reactor.
I want nuclear to be part of an energy mix, but it’s going to be a huge commitment to build out, there will be delays, there will be cost overruns and there will be graft and corruption. You know how Australians are, it will be an excuse to keep propping up coal and gas, and when the first plant doesn’t deliver on the economies and timeframes of, let’s say the eight plant, there will be some shithead who will stoke up a bunch of populist dogwhistles around how Canberra is wasting tax payer money on a white elephant project.
Imagine the nuclear advocates throwing that much money, time and effort behind nuclear only to see it stall out for another quarter century because the momentum faltered.