Your analogy is more telling than you think it is, and argues rather strongly against the idea that right wing transphobia has worthwhile points.

Yes, the (non) existence of God Almighty is both philosophically and scientifically unfalsifiable. But we don’t as societies use this to assert that every last person who proclaims a faith is telling an intentional lie about belonging to a religion

Gender is not like whether or not God exists, but is instead like what church you attend.