Even amongst conservatives, I would wager the ones who are reasonable enough to accept gay people are reasonable enough to accept trans people. I agree with what you’re saying—the general trend is that a new minority group is first reviled and then gradually accepted; gay people had a hard-won fight, and trans people will too (although thankfully, I think trans people can ride gay people’s success on this front, at least a bit). I just think there’s a huge contingent of conservatives (mainly the Christian Right) that will never accept gay people and group trans people in with them, rather than seeing them as separate issues/groups.