Got it! So you’re saying that the last choice is between 2^33^ or 0 and the last guy has a probably x of pulling the lever and killing everyone (therefore a (1-x) probability of killing nobody).

So, even if it’s guaranteed that nobody along the way pulls the lever (the best case scenario if we want 0 dead), the expected value at the last branch is x · 2^33^ + (1-x) · 0. And the only way this is less than 1 is if x < 1 / 2^33^, which is an absurdly tiny probability.

If we also consider the intermediary probabilities, this already tiny probability threshold of 1 / 2^33^ of killing nobody gets SMALLER because we’re allowing more chances for killing way more than 1 person along the way.