They choose between half the whole population and the whole population (very roughly as it aligns alongside exponents of 2)
Comment on 2³² will get interesting...
LanguageIsCool@lemmy.world 2 months ago[deleted]
Credibly_Human@lemmy.world 2 months ago
xxd@discuss.tchncs.de 1 month ago
That was my assumption, yes. Because the last person would have the entire population on the tracks, and you can’t really continue after that.
I neglected the intermediary likelihoods, because that calculation was too long for wolfram alpha, but I have since managed to get it working, and the conclusion is not significantly different. The expected number of deaths skyrockets, even if the chance of pulling the lever is tiny for every person.
LanguageIsCool@lemmy.world 1 month ago
xxd@discuss.tchncs.de 1 month ago
That’s exactly right, you got it!
The intermediary probabilities make it even worse, yes! But the overall probability is already ridiculously tiny, so I don’t think it changes the conclusion by a lot.