I generally agree with you, except I don’t think we can speculate whether it will be like 2008 the dot-com bubble.
The world economy different from what it was ~25 years ago. I believe the reliance on index type funds has increased at a drastic rate.
There is also things like the relative concentration of AI-influenced stocks.
Another new piece is America becoming much more corrupt. Americans might not care about this, but it would be naive to think this would not have caustic effect in the medium term on the real world.
Mind you, I am not necessarily saying I know the correct answer, just pointing out some things to consider.
supersquirrel@sopuli.xyz 12 hours ago
This is going to age like milk.
cygnus@lemmy.ca 12 hours ago
The dotcom crash was no joke. Most people here weren’t around for it (as adults at least) so they brush it off. I’m not saying this next crash won’t be bad, I’m saying it won’t have the knock-on liquidity effects of 2008.
supersquirrel@sopuli.xyz 12 hours ago
What you aren’t taking into account how much the US social safety net has hollowed out since the dotcom crash.
This is going to be very bad, I wouldn’t waste words speculating about the extent of the damage, we haven’t seen this kind of shock hit such a fragile US society. There is no resilience left in the US people to climb out of a big economic crash, things will just shatter.