Comment on How can I learn to estimate the likelihood of real-world events?
scarabic@lemmy.world 1 day agoTwo outcomes does not mean 50/50 chances. Maybe you were being sarcastic about that, but people actually use that reasoning in the real world all the time.
themusicman@lemmy.world 1 day ago
It either happens, or it doesn’t, or the chances are not equal.
That’s 50/50/50 or 1 in 3.
scarabic@lemmy.world 18 hours ago
SMH. You could get hit by a meteor tomorrow, or you could not. I guess you have a 50% chance of dying! Good luck with it man… I hope you make it.