Well depends on the definition of public… When Peter Thiel invests heavily in a platform like polymarket all it does is tell him if his political power is showing. Everything else is breadcrumbs we are allowed to see…
Much like with similar markets, robinhood comes to mind, I suspect this is of similar cloth (hugely profitable to the insiders, sometimes profitable to the outsiders and the public ““findings”” get massaged by their marketing department.
chicken@lemmy.dbzer0.com 3 days ago
I’m not sure what you mean, in this case the definition of public would be anyone who can see the state of the market (everyone), and so can see when insider trading visibly moves the price. The idea being that doing the insider trading unavoidably leaks the information in this way, they can’t hide it unless they can manage to actually prevent all insiders from trading on their inside knowledge.
SL3wvmnas@discuss.tchncs.de 8 hours ago
Yeah my comment is meandering a bit. Maybe a more succinct way would be to say: this so called market is a private firm and it’s in their own interest to not divulge the whole picture.
You’re absolutely right about complex systems always leaking info through unintended sidechannels, but I would argue that is information not available to everyone on the “market” at the same time, thus skewing the market (and again benefitting the owners of the market more than anyone).
chicken@lemmy.dbzer0.com 5 hours ago
Could you give an example? Do you mean they will fail to report or falsify the real prices, or something else? I’ll admit I like the idea of actually decentralized betting markets more (wish Augur had gotten big instead of platforms like Polymarket), but something that egregious seems like it would be tough to get away with without people noticing.