Comment on 5 Signs the AI Bubble is About to Burst
wulrus@lemmy.world 5 weeks agoI agree, but it is nearly impossible for a normal investor to be certain that the current stock price ISN’T the lowest it’ll ever be. The bullshitters have an incentive to keep up the lies a few years longer, just look at the housing bubble, and when it burst, it might burst down to the current level or even higher, if that happens in a couple of years.
I was right once when I sold my ETFs before the Ukraine crisis unfolded, but I realise now that I was stupid-lucky-right. Will never do that again.
Also, I fully expect that some AI usage will withstand a critical review, and will prevail, just like the dot-com.
Then, there is the risk that the unexpected breakthrough DOES come, and the ai-super-senior can fix all the vibe-coded nonsense. I don’t see it in the next 5 years, but both unexpected breakthroughs as well as unexpected plateaus have happened in the past.
FlashMobOfOne@lemmy.world 5 weeks ago
It’s true.
No one can time the market. If I opt to move into a money market at the end of the year, I’m likely giving up some short-term gain, but the flip side is that if this bubble does burst then I can buy back those shares at a massive discount.
It’s all a risk. Everyone has to evaluate the info we have and make the best choice according to their risk tolerance.
What really gives me the heebie jeebies are two things:
-The tremendous greed and valuation of so many of these companies, many of which haven’t delivered anything except bold promises. AI can do simple things well, but its output can’t be trusted without human validation, and that’s after training on all of the accumulated knowledge of humankind, which is why I tend to think that this bubble is eventually going to pop in dramatic fashion.
-The absolutely massive gains in the market over the past two years. My own retirement has had legitimate gains over the past two years that are above and beyond what ponzi schemes promise to deliver, and that’s simply unsustainable over the long term, so the question for me becomes when to take the profit and hold for a major event.
Anyway, that’s my reasoning around the choices I plan to make.