Comment on Exactly Six Months Ago, the CEO of Anthropic Said That in Six Months AI Would Be Writing 90 Percent of Code

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UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world ⁨1⁩ ⁨day⁩ ago

The practice is that over half of them move on to “other opportunities” within a couple of years, even if you give them good salary, benefits and working conditions.

In my experience (coming from O&G IT) there’s a somewhat tight knit circle of contractors and businesses tied to specific applications. And you just cycle through this network over time.

I’ve got a number of coworkers who are ex-contractors and a contractor lead who used to be my boss. We all work on the same software for the same company either directly or indirectly. You might move to command a higher salary, but you’re all leveraging the same accrued expertise.

If you cut off that circuit of employment, the quality of the project will not improve over time.

In the US they’re commanding $80k/yr because of supply and demand

You’ll need to explain why all the overseas contractors are getting paid so much less, in that case.

Again, we’re all working on the same projects for the same people with comparable skills. But I get paid 3x my Indian counterpart to be in the correct timezone and command enough fluent English language skills to deal with my bosses directly.

Case in point: starting salaries for engineers in the U.S. were around $30-40k/yr up until the .com boom, at which point software engineering capable college graduates ramped up to $70k/yr in less than a year, due to demand outstripping supply.

But then the boom busted and those salaries deflated down to the $50k range.

I had coworkers who would pin for the Y2K era, when they were making $200k in the mid 90s to do remedial code clean up. But that was a very shortly lived phenomen. All that work would have been outsourced overseas in the modern day.

Our codebase had plenty of janky nonsense before AI came around.

Speeding up the rate of coding and volume of code makes that problem much worse.

I’ve watched businesses lose clients - I even watched a client go bankrupt - from bad coding decisions.

In the past few months I have actually seen Anthropic/Claude’s code output improve significantly toward this goal.

If you can make it work, more power to you. But it’s a dangerous game I see a few other businesses executing without caution or comparable results.

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