Comment on As China prepares to invade Taiwan, a reality check: sitting on the sidelines won’t help Australia

sharkfucker420@lemmy.ml ⁨1⁩ ⁨week⁩ ago

• Zagorath@aussie.zone ⁨1⁩ ⁨week⁩ ago

  Happy cake day!

  unless it is made to pose a direct threat to them

  This is some unfortunately weasely phrasing when it comes to international diplomacy. Don’t forget Israel claimed that Iran was “posing a direct threat to them” before they proactively decided to fire missiles at Iran.

  I certainly hope China doesn’t invade Taiwan. But if they do, I have almost zero doubt that it will be after fabricating some sort of nonsense casus belli that gives them a veneer of legitimacy.

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  • sharkfucker420@lemmy.ml ⁨1⁩ ⁨week⁩ ago

    Damn has it really been three years? Nuts.

    Anyway yeah I don’t mean if the CPC claims it does, I mean if it actually does. As things currently stand they already have more justification than most western countries have given for their invasions into foreign land (see the US military base and political funding) but I don’t think they will actually do anything unless there are major troop movements or missile deployments to the island. Crossing my fingers that doesn’t happen though because it will absolutely be the beginning of ww3

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    • Zagorath@aussie.zone ⁨1⁩ ⁨week⁩ ago

      Damn has it really been three years?

      Only 2.

      unless this path is made absolutely impossible

      That’s the problem though. Taiwan clearly does not want reunification. Peaceful or otherwise. Younger generations are increasingly in favour of either status quo (de facto independence without any official declaration) or even explicit official independence. And the increasingly aggressive rhetoric and actions from China are only pushing the Taiwanese more in that direction. Consider: in 2018 support for moving towards unification was at its highest in over 15 years, but then China’s human rights abuses in Hong Kong, and more recently its aggressive military drills in and near Taiwanese airspace and waters have driven that down to an all-time low.

      So realistically, there are only two paths to unification. Through China doing a complete 180 on its foreign policy posture and showing it can sustain that reversal in the long term, as well as showing it can respect human rights. Or, through force.

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  • eureka@aussie.zone ⁨1⁩ ⁨week⁩ ago

    I have almost zero doubt that it will be after fabricating some sort of nonsense casus belli that gives them a veneer of legitimacy.

    The People’s Republic of China already take the official position that the Chinese Civil War is an ongoing conflict. And while I haven’t looked much into the Republic of China (Taiwan) position on the ground, taking their constitution at face value, they officially claim mainland China is their territory. So I don’t think the casus belli will be a problem, at least internally.

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• ikidd@lemmy.world ⁨1⁩ ⁨week⁩ ago

  China’s Final Warning

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