I think what will eventually happen is much like what happened to email, it too was very fragmented feeling early on but more and more adopted it and more servers kept developing and popping up and then at some point more service providers became more similar than alike and then it became what it is now.

The tricky part is that the concept and usefulness of a federated network mostly only grows in the long run and looks like its not going anywhere in the short term much like email and that is always what makes people question its efficacy.

Participation in any and all forms is what establishes it more and more.