It’s a bit hard to believe, but the vast majority of China’s manufacturing is consumed in China; it’s actually not that export oriented compared to other countries like Germany or Japan, it’s just the scale that makes them such and exporting juggernaut. The flip side of this is that most of the energy use is also actually China’s own energy use.

And China’s energy use is increasing simply because its people are getting richer and consuming more. Based on this, I don’t think China is the main concern. There are lots more developing countries that will likewise use more energy as they develop. China’s green transition seems to be going full tilt, but I’m not sure those other countries can transition as quickly as we need.