Remember, the only way for tariff revenue (which is just a direct tax replacing income tax) to hit anything like their targets, two things have to happen;

1. Imports have to remain at their pre-tariff levels, or even exceed them.
2. The tariffs have to remain in place permanently.

If that’s the case, then Trump is lying about bringing manufacturing back to the US, and he’s lying about making trade deals. Bringing manufacturing back, if successful, would reduce the total amount of imports, because people would buy the locally made goods instead. Making trade deals would require the US to lower or remove their tariffs as part of the deal. Neither of these things can be true if the tariffs are going to act as a new source of government revenue. And the tariffs themselves do not reduce the tax burden on the American people, they just move more of it to people who can afford it less.