If the US tariffs stand, I think the chance of recession during this year already is near 100%.
So my guess is that the financial analysts are betting that there is a good chance like 50% that these tariffs are removed very quickly. And by very quickly I really mean VERY quickly, like in a matter of a couple of weeks.

The economy in many places around the world is already shifting away from USA. The obvious boycott by Canada and also in Europe by consumers, is only the surface.

To run a company you want stability, and companies all over the world are already seeking alternatives to USA, just as American companies are already seeking alternatives to imports.

This will stall economic progress, it will create jobs and take away jobs in USA, but the jobs created will be lower wage than the ones that are lost. American production will take over low wage jobs from abroad, and despite the tariffs making competition easier on those jobs, it will not make them high wage jobs.

It will make US trading partners poorer, so they can afford less US imports. And companies are already looking towards ways the highest profit US exports can be replaced. Those are all in services, something not even considered in the moronic US trade deficit calculation. But the area where USA actually has huge surplusses, and at profits often nearing 90%!! Those jobs are at risk now!

All in all it will make both USA and trading partners relatively poorer. But probably USA will be hit the hardest, as the outside world has a more than twice as big trading block than USA has with itself. If that scales linearly, USA will be hit twice as hard by their own tariffs than the rest of the world.

Personally we’ve stopped buying everything American that we can. And as the one who does most of the shopping, I was actually surprised by the amount of American things we used.

On a side note, USA has now forced EU to cooperate with China more on trade, something we held back on for security reasons.
But now that security balance has changed dramatically. USA is no longer a more secure partner than China is.
For instance USA is aligning more with Russia now than even China is!!

I don’t see how this will not end with a recession for USA maybe already for 2nd and 3rd quarters, which I guess is the soonest possible actual recession (2 quarters of negative growth).