A recession is generally defined as two or more quarters with negative GDP growth.

Tariffs will absolutely cause that. They’re going to dampen US growth for years.

That’s only one simple definition though. Broadly I think the answer is still yes, this will cause US job losses, as you’re already seeing in the automotive industry. Job losses result in lower consumer spending, resulting in lower business revenue, and less business expansion and cost cutting, and it can become a reinforcing cycle.

Recessions can be mild or severe, so the jury is still out on whether the US will hold their tariffs, and how quickly the system adapts to the changes.