That’s not a bell curve. Maybe some kind of beta, but the beta distribution only exists from 0 to 1, it’s cannot deal with infinite ranges. You can né thinking on something that starts as an exponential distribution curve, but growths at the end, but I have never found that kind of curve on my studies.
Comment on Who needs retirement when you can buy an asset that loses value over time?
Ilovethebomb@lemm.ee 15 hours ago
The value of almost any car travels in a bell curve. They’re worth a lot when new, next to nothing in 15-20 years or so, then, when most of them have been scrapped, they start to come up in value.
A 20-30 year old truck, particularly one in good condition, will almost certainly be increasing in value, and you can drive it around.
Although a better option would be a nineties Hilux.
driving_crooner@lemmy.eco.br 6 hours ago
Ilovethebomb@lemm.ee 6 hours ago
Upside down bell curve, if you must. Kinda.
The point is, the value will bottom out at some point, then, due to scarcity, will slowly start to climb. So, if you “buy the dip”, and especially if you pick the right vehicle, it absolutely will go up in value.
alaphic@lemmy.world 14 hours ago
No offense, but I feel like if this is true at all, it’s likely still at the very least misleading… I can’t think of really any secondary sales markets in which the most important determination of value isn’t one thing: Condition. (I’m sure there are plenty of arguments to be made for it to be trumped by rarity, but… Let’s be realistic here - unless you’re an archeologist it doesn’t matter how well the pot’s glaze holds its finish, if it amounts to nothing more than a few shards in the end, it’s not going to be quite as awe inspiring as one perhaps more worn yet still intact.)
So, yeah, sure, your 30 year old vehicle could appreciate… Assuming you’ve managed to keep it in something near showroom condition, it hasn’t suffered any major accidental/structural damage, and you not only did all the required/recommended services in a timely manner but also kept the records to prove it. (It also certainly wouldn’t hurt you if that particular make/model ceased production, by any means, either, obviously.)
But I sincerely doubt your F-350 with X00k miles on it that needs a new motor mount and only has 2 knobs left on the console is gonna beat a decent, stable, and well managed index fund investment of the same amount. I’m more than willing to admit my mistake(s) if someone has evidence to the contrary, but I feel like this is another one of those lies ‘temporarily embarrassed millionaires’ tell themselves when they kick the can a bit further down the road of their inevitable prodigious wealth. 😋
Delphia@lemmy.world 12 hours ago
You’re both right.
Most of the time condition is the determining factor, but there are cars that even absolutely fucked, the value is in the vin number. You can cut away 90% of the chassis and body, replace it with steel and patch panels from lesser models, source an engine and an interior and “ship of thesius” yourself a “Genuine” 69 R/T Charger.
Also, you’re disregarding the sweat equity equation. Basic spares and repair parts are usually pretty cheap, wiring and mechanical on an old truck is pretty damn simple and bodywork is reasonably easy to learn and do quite affordably if they are smart about it and have the time to put in.
Restoration shops do manage to stay in business because sometimes people want the car they lusted after when they were 16,the kids have grown up and moved out and they have money… condition is less important then.
alaphic@lemmy.world 10 hours ago
Honestly, I would think that the whole ‘sweat equity’ aspect would argue more in my favor, to be honest… Even assuming you are doing the necessary restoration work or whatever yourself at cost it doesn’t just magically make that ‘value’ disappear, it would just be externalized and distributed (so to speak) over whatever time you’ve spent acquiring the ability to do so, would it not?
I’m not trying to be argumentative necessarily, but keep in mind I’m considering this strictly from the viewpoint of it being an investment with anticipated return over that of an index over 30 years, so I’m not considering the enjoyment or what have you you might expect from a car enthusiast to be a factor. I also am basing my opinion on my feeling the implication in the original reply was that you could go out right now, get whatever car you wanted, drive it for 30+ years and finally still sell it in whatever state it may be in for something like a 5% return on what you originally paid. Do you consider (or preferably could you provide some evidence?) this to be accurate?
Ilovethebomb@lemm.ee 9 hours ago
First, we’re talking about buying a vehicle that someone else has taken the depreciation hit on, not a brand new vehicle.
Second, nobody has claimed this will beat a 401k
Third, it’s a shitpost on the Internet. Stop taking everything so seriously.
MutilationWave@lemmy.dbzer0.com 11 hours ago
So I bought a Challenger R/T with 14k miles on it four years ago. I have put almost 70k miles on it, and it’s now worth $4k more than I paid for it.
For real, if you can get an old Ford truck from the nineties in good condition with low mileage it is probably a better investment than a 4% 401k match. My next door neighbor picked up a decent 90s Toyota truck that had been sitting in a barn for $1000. He is a mechanic so there’s that, but I thought he made an excellent purchase. So what if it’s missing some clear coat and has rust spots in non-critical locations on the body?
Ilovethebomb@lemm.ee 9 hours ago
The main value of a new vehicle is your time and peace of mind.
If you walk into a dealership and buy a brand new vehicle, with a five year warranty and a service plan, you have a very good idea what the next five years of driving will cost you, and you can be as certain as possible that the vehicle will be reliable.
Bangernomics makes sense until you factor in your time.
MutilationWave@lemmy.dbzer0.com 8 hours ago
I’m talking something one year used with 10k miles on it will save you $10k+.
Ilovethebomb@lemm.ee 14 hours ago
I strongly encourage you to look up the current price of a Hilux or Supra from the nineties.
Also, stop taking jokes so seriously.
alaphic@lemmy.world 10 hours ago
I mean, you’re the one making claims of bell graphs and whatnot here bro… I said I’d be more than happy to correct myself if I’m wrong, but you’re the one making the claims here; That means the onus of proof is on you… I’m not the one who needs to be right so bad they had to say that kinda lame and honestly a bit nonsensical ‘i was joking even though there is clearly nothing in my comment that even remotely supports that interpretation’ thing.
Feel free to keep that ‘do your own research’ energy over there in MAGA land tho… and be a big boy and provide your own proof. It’s really telling (and doesn’t exactly scream ‘credible/competent’ tbh) if the strongest rebuttal you have is… Nothing? Lol
Ilovethebomb@lemm.ee 10 hours ago
I don’t care enough about your opinion to do any of that.
Believe me or not, I don’t really care.