Comment on Trump tariffs result in 10% laptop price hike in U.S. says Acer CEO
thanksforallthefish@literature.cafe 2 days agoOk, but this isn’t a betting site, this is an options contract, which given the current price split of 73c:28c is not a good buy (winning isn’t profitable and you’re tying your money up for 2years).
The price however is inline with my statement - that market considers a GOP win a near certainty.
I’ve checked the mainstream betting sites and GOP are solidly odds on (4/6 on through 8/13on) which isnt hugely profitable but I guess it’ll shorten even further
yarr@feddit.nl 1 day ago
You are reading the results backwards - Kalshi predicts a Democratic win at ~70% (as of now) probability. I agree the payback isn’t huge… but if you’re SURE then it’s easy money!