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yarr@feddit.nl 3 days agoHere you go friend: this is a prediction market on whether the Republicans or Democrats will win the house next year: kalshi.com/markets/controlh/house-winner
If your prediction is right and there are no more elections this will be easy money for you.
thanksforallthefish@literature.cafe 2 days ago
Ok, but this isn’t a betting site, this is an options contract, which given the current price split of 73c:28c is not a good buy (winning isn’t profitable and you’re tying your money up for 2years).
The price however is inline with my statement - that market considers a GOP win a near certainty.
I’ve checked the mainstream betting sites and GOP are solidly odds on (4/6 on through 8/13on) which isnt hugely profitable but I guess it’ll shorten even further
yarr@feddit.nl 2 days ago
You are reading the results backwards - Kalshi predicts a Democratic win at ~70% (as of now) probability. I agree the payback isn’t huge… but if you’re SURE then it’s easy money!