In this scenario reaching the goal would require an entirely different base technology, and incremental improvements to what we have now do not eventually lead to AGI.
Kinda like incremental improvements to cars or even trains won’t eventually get us to Mars.
Free_Opinions@feddit.uk 1 day ago
Firstly, I’ve been talking about improvements in AI technology broadly, not any specific subfield. Secondly, you can’t know that. While I doubt LLMs will directly lead to AGI, I wouldn’t claim this with absolute certainty - there’s always a chance they do, or at the very least, that they help us discover what the next step should be.
davidgro@lemmy.world 1 day ago
It’s true that I can’t know for sure that they won’t lead to AGI (or like you say give clues) - however it’s definitely a scenario I can imagine, and that’s what I was responding to: The idea that incremental improvements Must lead to a given goal. I don’t think that’s the case. Here in particular I think it’s not only possible that it won’t, it’s even somewhat likely.
Free_Opinions@feddit.uk 1 day ago
This doesn’t just apply to AGI, same could be said about any technology. If it can be created and there’s value in creating it, then it’ll just be a matter of time untill someone invents it unless we go extinct before that.
davidgro@lemmy.world 1 day ago
It also applies to technologies that don’t in fact exist but could. Those are much harder to name (besides sci-fi) since almost by definition we don’t know about most of them. Nor how many, compared to existing tech.
I’m not actually saying it’s impossible, just saying that local maximums (as described by the other users here) are a thing and it’s possible to be trapped for a very long time by them. Potentially forever, but you’re right that odds of breaking out do increase over time.