Like I said; I’ve made no claims about the timeline. All I’ve said is that incremental improvements will lead to us getting there eventually.
In this scenario reaching the goal would require an entirely different base technology, and incremental improvements to what we have now do not eventually lead to AGI.
Kinda like incremental improvements to cars or even trains won’t eventually get us to Mars.
Firstly, I’ve been talking about improvements in AI technology broadly, not any specific subfield. Secondly, you can’t know that. While I doubt LLMs will directly lead to AGI, I wouldn’t claim this with absolute certainty - there’s always a chance they do, or at the very least, that they help us discover what the next step should be.
It’s true that I can’t know for sure that they won’t lead to AGI (or like you say give clues) - however it’s definitely a scenario I can imagine, and that’s what I was responding to: The idea that incremental improvements Must lead to a given goal. I don’t think that’s the case. Here in particular I think it’s not only possible that it won’t, it’s even somewhat likely.
This doesn’t just apply to AGI, same could be said about any technology. If it can be created and there’s value in creating it, then it’ll just be a matter of time untill someone invents it unless we go extinct before that.
jrs100000@lemmy.world 1 year ago
Just like incremental improvements in the bicycle will eventually allow for hypersonic peddling.