The fediverse will have the same growths as most foss. It will start slow and continue to grow slowly forever. It will always be a bit behind the cutting edge but it will never get worse only get better. Its like evolution it gets forked the best fork wins the reat die repeat.

Every enshitification cycle we will gain a few people and once we have them we have they stay a lot longer than most other platforms. We will not win through mass adoption but through a long slow a painfull proccess of gradual accumulation.

And at some point it will become dominant eg blender, a bunch of standards, and linux in the server space. The tech companies live on the edge forever trying to outrun the snail that will kill them instantly when it touches them. Foss is coming it cannot be stopped it will find them and it will kill them