It turns out that it’s hard to tell the future. Polls have to make assumptions and the safest assumption is that this election is going to look like elections in the past. From the early voting data, we know that this election isn’t like 2016, or 2020, and what that tells us pretty reliably is that the polls are wrong.

This is how Trump got an upset in 2016, he turned out loads of people who normally don’t vote, and were therefore underrepresented in the polling. It is likely that many of these same voters are going to sit it out this year while all the polls are counting them double.