Comment on Its a lot easier these looking at a beautiful person these days and not feeling a bit of jealousy know there is a decent chance they would vote for fascism.

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hedgehog@ttrpg.network ⁨1⁩ ⁨month⁩ ago

Just going plain statistics

And completely ignoring demographics.

First, a lot of people didn’t vote, period.

Second, support differs drastically by state. Let’s pretend we’re in 2020, right after the election. Are you in California? If so, a randomly chosen eligible voter has an 88% of having registered to vote. And a registered voter had an 81% chance of having voted. So 29% of people didn’t even vote. If they voted, they had a 34% chance of having voted for Trump. So that’s already reduced the overall chance that an eligible voter voted for Trump to 24%. But if they were younger than 30, that drops from 34% to 25% (overall: 18%). (Under 40? 29% (21%).) Or if they’re Black, Latino, or Asian? 21% (15%).

So if a 20-something Latino caught your eye, then there’s only a 17% chance he, she, or they voted for Trump. (And if you use different pronouns, there’s very little chance you voted for Trump.)

On the other hand, if you’re only into older white people (50+) who’ve been doing better while Trump was president, and you hold that not voting or voting third party is the same as voting for Trump (only a Sith deals in absolutes) then there’s a 61% chance he or she voted for Trump.

At least, I think that’s how those probabilities get combined.

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