Iran is entering a phase of persistent unrest, driven by decentralized “minor triggers” and deepening economic and legitimacy pressures that repression alone may no longer contain, senior analysts said at Iran International’s townhall in Washington DC.
Iran experienced in January its most widespread and sustained unrest since the founding of the Islamic Republic, as protests spread across cities and provinces and authorities responded with an escalating crackdown that analysts say reflects a deepening crisis of legitimacy at the core of the state.
Speaking during a special Iran International Insight town hall on Wednesday, experts said the scale, persistence and decentralization of the unrest signal a structural rupture between state and society - one repression alone may no longer be able to contain.
In what participants described as one of the harshest security responses in recent years, tens of thousands have been killed, detained or interrogated. Rather than restoring order, panelists argued, the severity of the crackdown underscores mounting anxiety within the leadership about the durability of its authority.
A widening legitimacy gap
Political scientist Mohammad Ghaedi said each protest cycle deepens what he described as a structural legitimacy deficit.
“In democracies, when we ask why leaders should rule, the answer is because they are elected by the nation,” he said. “But if you ask that question of Iranians, there is no clear answer — because 47 years ago, Ayatollah Khomeini deceived the nation.”
According to Ghaedi, the leadership is fully aware of this vulnerability.
“They have to respond in a way that makes the nation unwilling to protest again. That explains the brutality of the repression,” he said.