China's factory activity grows at fastest pace since October, private survey shows, beating official reading

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• Hotznplotzn@lemmy.sdf.org ⁨11⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

  This is a questionable interpretation and a highly misleading title and content.

  TL;DR: China’s export-focused economy is doing relatively well, all others fall further behind. It’s another proof for Beijing’s mercantilism and its increasing dependency on foreign markets.

  China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index came fell back in contraction to 49.3. The fact that it diverges from the (private) RatingDog PMI provided by S&P (and cited in linked the article), suggests that external activity continues to be much stronger than domestic demand.

  In other words: China’s economy is still highly reliant on exports, it does carries over its troubles into 2026 (this interpretation is in line with several analysts, see, for example, the report by ING Bank).

  Unlike China’s official PMI, the private RatingDog PMI has a sample size focused on private and particularly export-oriented companies. We have seen that the gap between the two PMIs has been growing especially in the second half of 2025, and this gap is now even larger.

  We also see that China’s official NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI fell back into contraction to 49.4 in January 2026 from 50.2 in December 2025, reflecting cautious consumer spending and and persistent stress in the property sector.

  The consequences of China growth model are felt already by ordinary people, as one analysis reads:

  [China’s] The country’s growth has become increasingly expensive to maintain, and its dividends are reaching ordinary households with diminishing force.

  The divergence between headline growth and household reality is now impossible to ignore. While GDP expanded by 5 percent in 2025, median per capita disposable income – a more representative measure of what typical families actually earn – rose by only 4.4 percent, slowing from the 5.1 percent gain in the previous year. Urban residents fared even worse, with median income growth of just 3.7 percent – worse than the 4.6 percent growth in 2024. The slowdown may seem modest in percentage terms, but it signals something profound: the transmission mechanism that once converted aggregate growth into broadly shared prosperity is weakening. – (Archived)

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