China's Economy is Expected to Grow 4.8% in 2026 Amid Surging Exports

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• Hotznplotzn@lemmy.sdf.org ⁨37⁩ ⁨minutes⁩ ago

  This is a report published by a bank with considerable business in China that uses official data Chinese Communist Party narratives.

  There is an analysis based on newly released data by China’s Statistics Office, but the researchers look a bit closer. They conclude that China’s “New” Strategic Industries Will Not Produce 5% GDP Growth – (here is an archived link):

  • China’s high-technology industries will not generate investment sufficient to power 5% GDP growth in the years ahead
  • The reason is that the country’s technology sector is too small relative to the property and infrastructure investment that are in sharp decline
  • China will become even more dependent upon gaining market share in export markets, in both new and traditional industries
  • China’s past economic performance has clearly been overstated, particularly since the decline of the property sector starting in 2022

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