cross-posted from: lemmy.sdf.org/post/42981736
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[China’s Xi Jinping’s] promise to cut emissions by 7-10% from their peak was indeed a landmark pledge, in the sense that the country responsible for a third of global CO2 pollution has never before committed to cutting it by so much as a puff. But when you parse the Paramount Leader’s video message to world leaders, any vestige of optimism begins to melt away.
Let’s leave aside the question of which “peak” Mr Xi had in mind – some estimates suggest Chinese greenhouse gas pollution may have plateaued last year, but his carefully worded statement leaves room for another peak yet.
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Firstly, some logic. A commitment to a 7-10% cut “while striving to do better” is a commitment to a 7% cut. That is all.
And let’s not forget it’s a “net” cut, meaning the parallel pledge to “scale up the total forest stock volume to 24 billion cubic metres” will subtract the presumed amount of CO2 locked away in wood.
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What else does Beijing promise? “Expand the installed capacity of wind and solar power to over 6 times the 2020 levels, striving to bring the total to 3,600 gigawatts.”
There’s that weasel word “striving” again. Signatories to the Paris Agreement said they would strive to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels (specifically, the climate during the latter half of the nineteenth century). That is now considered politically impossible.
But we risk getting tied up in data. The nationally determined contribution (NDC) may not have been the most significant part of Xi’s intervention, if you read between the lines: “In the course of global green transition, fairness and equity should be upheld and the right to development of developing countries fully respected.”
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It might surprise many to learn that China – while asserting itself as a major geopolitical force and very close to tying with the EU as the world’s second-largest economy – claims to be a “developing country” in the context of global climate talks, allying itself with the likes of Kiribati, Somalia and Zimbabwe.
In other words, it is the wealthy West that should pay for having had their industrial revolutions earlier. Beijing’s intransigence on this point was a major bone of contention at the COP29 summit in Azerbaijan last year.
Then comes the kicker: “It is important that countries strengthen international coordination in green technologies and industries to address the shortfall in green production capacity and ensure free flow of quality green products globally so that the benefits of green development can reach all corners of the world.”
China has invested a tremendous amount of political and actual capital in turning itself into the global workshop for green tech production. Trump is not only tossing tariffs around: He’s declared climate action a “con job” and is doing his best to shut down wind and solar development, both at home and abroad.
Meanwhile Brussels is actively pursuing a “buy European” policy. Beijing probably has reason to be concerned about its export market.
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