cross-posted from: lemmy.sdf.org/post/36040065
China’s use of critical infrastructure to control downstream water supply will threaten vital economic activities and life.
China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will leverage rail and road networks to strengthen its positions near the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with India. China’s military-civilian dual-use infrastructure will continue to encroach on disputed lands while posturing the country’s forces to project coercive power and gain an advantage in the next border clash.
Regional states will no longer harbor Tibetan refugee camps, while also adopting increasingly authoritarian practices made possible by surveillance systems exported by China.
Until now, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has maintained a slow, methodical approach to eroding the sovereignty of nations in the Tibetan Plateau. However, the countdown to 2035 will see increasing pressure on any democracies and hybrid regimes that are not in step with the CCP’s plans.
China’s initial method of pressure will rely on the spread of influence operation campaigns to sow distrust and shape foreign influence. In sync with these campaigns, the CCP will employ irregular warfare tactics to foment its expansionist goals. Maintaining a free and open Tibetan Plateau will require an extensive and tailored strategic approach. The key factors to mitigate PRC expansion involve strengthening the border bond between India and Nepal, enhancing intelligence collection sharing, investing in cybersecurity defense, and leveraging economic measures.
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