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Comment on Posit: In the future, generative A.I. will be thought of as the unconscious part of a general A.I.'s mind.

It’s a lofty sentiment, but I don’t agree.

I think that in the future generative A.I. will be seen like the Turbo Button, Desktop Publishing Revolution and Information Superhighway of their day, ideas that over promised, under delivered and faded into obscurity. I suspect that Block Chain and Crypto Currencies will go the same way for similar reasons as outlined below.

Machine Learning is a useful tool to automatically generate a model for a multivariate system where traditional modelling is too complex or time consuming.

Generative models are attempting to take that to a whole new level but I don’t believe that it’s either sustainable nor living up to the hype generated by breathless reporting by ignorant journalists who cannot distinguish advanced technology from magic.

It’s not sustainable for a range of reasons. The most obvious is that the process universally disintegrates when it ingests content generated by the same process.

Furthermore, it doesn’t learn, specifically, the model doesn’t change until a new version is released, so it doesn’t gather new models whilst it’s being used.

And finally, it requires obscene amounts of energy to actually work and with the exponential growth of models, this is only going to get worse.

Source: I’m an ICT professional with 40 years experience

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A_A@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
Thanks onno & @Hackworth@lemmy.world

… “the process universally disintegrates when it ingests content generated by the same process.”

For a Layman enthusiast like me, this sounds like people very isolated (i.e. in a station at the South Pole), go crazy after too much time alone.

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- vk6flab@lemmy.radio ⁨2⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
  It’s more like a chemical chain reaction that explodes than anything to do with human behaviour.
  
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- Hackworth@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
  Here’s the paper onno’s alluding to, for reference.
  
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Hackworth@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
Isn’t your comment more of a perspective on the public perception of AI, the missteps surrounding its implementation, and its current role - rather than an examination of the potential role (practically speaking) of generative AI in a more general AI model? As is the thrust of the post, generative AI will necessarily be part of a larger AI, in part to make up for its weaknesses, in part to utilize its strengths.

That said, generative AI isn’t nearly as endangered by generated training data as is commonly understood. Even if it were that bad, embodiment is rapidly changing the landscape. There are a ton of papers about how to use larger models to make smaller models more effective, using generative AI to improve generative AI along with efficiencies. Heck, novel efficiencies get developed almost as regularly as novel use cases. We’re always learning how to do more with less.

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- vk6flab@lemmy.radio ⁨2⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
  No.
  
  I think that the current generative models are fundamentally flawed and won’t last the decade.
  
  Which is why I don’t think that they’ll be thought of much at all beyond academic curiosity.
  
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  - Hackworth@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
    I can’t imagine going back to before Adobe added Generative Fill to Photoshop. Gen AI will certainly remain more than an academic curiosity, at least until they can be replaced with something better.
    
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    vk6flab@lemmy.radio ⁨2⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
    For shits and giggles you should try to do a generative fill on an area already filled that way.
    
    (After saving the work, quitting and relaunching the Photoshop.)
    
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  - MCasq_qsaCJ_234@lemmy.zip ⁨2⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
    AI has been around for a long time and has had moments of high interest and low interest. The latter has been given the term “AI Winter.” It is possible that there will be another winter if there is a limitation that cannot be avoided for several years.
    
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Petter1@lemm.ee ⁨2⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
I think there were many unthinkable things achieved in the past that one can hope that we can find a way to train LLM-style “AI” a lot faster with way less recourses and thus achieve self trained assistants, that interact exactly as one expect from their personal helper.

🤷🏻‍♀️I guess we’ll see

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