Enjoying reading books, coffee, and romantic comedies are all factors that would influence statistics that you are just … ignoring?
Comment on Why is homebrewing so middle-class, straight, white, male?
bionicjoey@lemmy.ca 2 months ago
You’re conflating correlation with causation.
Causation: Most homebrewing is a moderately expensive hobby, and so will skew toward middle class people
Correlation: where you are located, middle class people are probably majority white. Also probably the majority of people in your area in general are white. Also the majority of people in general are straight.
If you were in Japan or Colombia or Jamaica, middle class people would not be majority white.
As for the male thing, brewing beer is viewed as a more masculine hobby. Call it a self fulfilling prophecy. Many women probably choose not to join the hobby because they view it as not something women should do.
As an aside, it’s helpful to learn about Bayesian statistics in order to interpret trends and observations that you see in the world around you. Here’s an example:
Paige is a young woman. Paige enjoys reading books and has a quiet demeanor. She also enjoys drinking coffee and watching romantic comedies.
What is more likely?
A) Paige is a teacher
B) Paige is a farmer
Most people answer teacher, but the answer is that Paige is overwhelmingly more likely to be a farmer. Simply because there are orders of magnitude more farmers than teachers in the world.
whoreticulture@lemmy.world 2 months ago
TheRealKuni@lemmy.world 2 months ago
But are there more farmers named Paige or teachers named Paige?
I can’t imagine Paige is a common name in many of the countries which still rely on subsistence farming, where farming will be a far more prevalent occupation. In the US, where Paige is a relatively common name, there are around twice as many teachers as farmers according to my very brief (and probably not super accurate research).
Also I imagine that worldwide, farmers will skew male more than female. Just like how teachers probably skew more female than male. Note I didn’t bother to look for statistics for this, this is just a guess.
If you were to not name a person or gender and just say “is this person more likely to be a teacher or farmer,” then sure, farmer. But we’ve limited our base group of people to women named Paige. Surely that adjusts the probability.
bionicjoey@lemmy.ca 2 months ago
Even if her gender and name adjusts the probability somewhat, it should all be cancelled out by the order of magnitude by which the number of farmers outnumbers teachers, even in countries where a name like Paige is common. Teachers are an incredibly uncommon profession in the grand scheme of things, because it only takes a small proportion of them for a society to function (no offense intended to teachers of course)
But I will admit, I believe the original version of this thought experiment didn’t give the woman a name. I was just trying to be a bit more descriptive haha. I’m pretty sure the thought experiment also predates the level of automation that is now common in agriculture. I was mostly just reconstructing it from memory.