Comment on Everyone in Japan will be called Sato by 2531 unless marriage law changed, says professor

blindsight@beehaw.org ⁨1⁩ ⁨month⁩ ago

I posted this in another thread on this article:

The math is wrong.

You can’t apply exponential growth to the proportion of a total.

Growing from 1% to 2% (a 100% gain) is equally a reduction from 99% to 98%, a 1.01% drop.
Going from 99% to 100% (a 1.01% gain) is equally a reduction from 1% to 0%, an infinite drop.

Simple exponential modeling is the wrong tool.

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