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dudinax@programming.dev ⁨8⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

No you’re not wrong. There’s a reverse fallacy called the ludic fallacy: an unwarranted belief that the rules of the game describe how the game actually works.

“Given a fair table, if red comes up 99 times in a row, what are the relative odd of getting red vs. black?”

Mathematician, falling for the ludic fallacy: 1:1

Realist: You’re wrong. The table isn’t fair. Red is more likely.

However, people tend to underestimate the how likely long runs are at a fair table.

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