Great question. I’ll answer with “At achieving the task it was designed for.” Because unlike corporations, open source software has no goals outside of being what it is. Let me put it another way: from my individual perspective, the “Year of the Linux Desktop” was 2022. I do not think it’s correct to say that Linux can have “market share” because it exists outside the market. By not using proprietary software we are exiting the market.

I’m not making the argument that Linux should not be accessible or attractive for new users, but that “popularity” has no real bearing on determining success because it’s success as a tool can only determined by the individual. Describing Linux as “competing” with anything only makes sense if you are a company trying to make money from an operating system. Popularity itself is only important insofar as it helps with attracting new and better devs.