there’s no way to know which track the trolley is on

It’s a standard trolley meme problem, the trolley will keep going on the main track unless the lever is switched 😁. I thought !science_memes would be familiar with trolley problems, but I guess I get to introduce some of you! You might want to start off on some easier trolley memes first, this is advanced level stuff.

where the real lever sends it

There is not usually ambiguity with the lever. If you wish, you can have an announcement in the headphones “main track… side track…” every time you flip the lever. Your only uncertainty is which track you yourself are bound to, given how you’re blindfolded.

there’s a 0.017% chance

1/6 * 10% = 1/60 = 0.01666… = 1.666…% ~= 1.7%! Careful there!

It’s not really a trolley problem, because in both scenarios a track is empty,

Everything is a trolley problem.