TL;DR:

Stores that are closing in New York, Seattle, Portland, and San Francisco were all able to analyzed for a variety of theft crimes as compared to nearby stores in their cities. In each case, stores that are closing are less than or similar to nearby stores in reported rates of these crimes. Other locations mentioned by Target were not able to be analyzed, either due to insufficient data or no comparable stores in those cities.

In addition, “shrink” rates for Target locations continues a regular oscillation of between 1.2% and 1.6% of gross sales, often correlating with movement in retail sales overall. Of factors that contribute to shrink, retail theft is only one. Others factors include employee theft, processing, and administrative mistakes.

Popular Info points to these data and announced plans for smaller stores being built near to many of the closures as a possible indicator of other factors leading to these closures than theft. The announcement and blame came out the same day as an industry group’s report on the impacts of retail theft on sales.