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FaceDeer@kbin.social ⁨1⁩ ⁨year⁩ ago

Yeah, it's going to be quite dramatic. Even if the $1 million goal isn't reached, just getting within an order of magnitude of it is still a 40 times saving over Falcon 9 - which is already the dominant launcher for being so cheap and high-volume. It's been kind of fun watching Starship's development and thinking about how for once we're able to see the "oncoming storm" that's going to drastically disrupt the launch market in the years to come. Once Starship's up and running basically everything flying today will be hopelessly obsolete.

Assuming no unexpected insurmountable obstacles come along. But I just can't think of anything plausible at this point - the only things that I can think of would just involve relatively minor hindrances. If the "chopstick" landing doesn't work out, the design could fall back to landing legs. If the upper stage's heat shield doesn't work then maybe something heavier will be needed, or in the extreme perhaps the upper stage can be expendable until something better gets sorted out. Difficulties with on-orbit refuelling only interfere with beyond-LEO operations, not with shipping satellites to LEO. These can add a few millions of dollars or shave a few tens of tons off of the launch capacity, which still doesn't make the end result less than revolutionary.

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