Comment on Memory Makers Expect Shortages to End in Late 2028, Could Pause Expansion Plans
XLE@piefed.social 1 day agoEither that or, optimistically, memory manufacturers see a bubble about to burst, and they don’t want to be stuck holding excessive manufacturing equipment.
SippyCup@lemmy.world 1 day ago
Frequently the attitude towards equipment is that it can be sold once they’re done with it. Particularly specialized equipment might sit a little longer but that’s built in to the calculation.
There’s a bottleneck in hiring skilled workers to run that equipment, and time to get that equipment up and running. It can take months from when the equipment is in the building before it’s making parts, up to a year for very sensitive equipment. And troubleshooting it to get it working at capacity takes even longer.
Which is great, if you need time to find people to run it, but usually those skilled workers already have jobs, and there are only so many available in any given area. Even if you have them available you’re stuck paying them for months before you’re ready to put them to work.
It’s high risk and it takes a long time to pay off. A miscalculation is the end of the CEOs career and may bankrupt the company. The first to pull it off though will be in a great spot, assuming it’s not a bubble and it doesn’t burst. Manufacturers are going to want some solid guarantees before taking the plunge. Optimally they want someone else to pay for it. They may actually be negotiating with these companies now about funding their expansion.
CmdrShepard49@sh.itjust.works 1 day ago
As someone tangentially related to all this, I’m not so sure how accurate this is. The equipment we have isn’t ever sold until its completely deprecated and the space is needed for new tooling as a lot of this equipment takes years of planning, installation, and qualification before its ever allowed into production (along with strict service term contracts). The market is also relatively small and this would effect everyone equally, so I’m not sure how solid a plan like this would be. I imagine it would be similar to the housing market after the '08 crash where everyone is trying to unload dead weight at the same time which further devalues everything at a time when capital is desperately needed and sales have plunged off a cliff.