Comment on We don’t have room in the carbon budget for a world war.

• Transform2942@lemmy.ml ⁨1⁩ ⁨day⁩ ago

  3 factors:

  • Whether or not you believe Russia’s economy was “just about to collapse from sanctions”, that is all up in smoke now
  • The Western armories were already running bare. Now, Ukraine will probably never receive another air defense interceptor. There won’t be any tomahawks to give.
  • Ukraine’s European backers were already under tremendous economic strain from having the highest energy prices in the world. They are EXTREMELY exposed to this current energy shock.

  The combined forces of the West were already losing before suffering this massive economic shock and gigantic military expenditure

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  • ChristerMLB@piefed.social ⁨18⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

    Those three are all real factors, but I think you are exaggerating their size and importance.

    The increase in oil price and softening of US sanctions will benefit the Russians, but it won’t make the war economy sustainable.

    Western armories are running bare, but the same is true for the Russian ones. Both Ukraine and Russia are mostly using equipment as it’s being produced, and both Ukraine and the rest of Europe has been ramping up production capacity. I imagine you’re right that it’s worse for Ukraine to lose access to American air defense systems than it is for Russia to lose access to Iranian Shaheds.

    The high energy prices are a problem in Europe, but compared to the situation in Russia (or Ukraine, for that matter) there’s nothing EXTREME about it.

    The reason peace negotiations have been hopeless, is because the Ukrainians and the Russians can’t agree on where the war is headed. The Russians believe that if they just keep going, the Europeans will get bored and give up, while Ukrainians believe that they can keep going longer than the Russians because they are supported by a European economy that is not in an unsustainable “war mode”.

    Who is right is up to us, and given that every single demand that the Russians have is against some pretty fundamental international law, it is in the interest of future European peace to ensure that the Ukrainians are right - and to make that as obvious as possible to the Russians so that peace negotiations become possible.

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    • Transform2942@lemmy.ml ⁨9⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

      New day, new patience apparently.

      The increase in oil price and softening of US sanctions will benefit the Russians, but it won’t make the war economy sustainable.

      According to who? The sanctions can’t be “on the verge” of working and also not be that important at the same time. We’re talking about TRIPLE revenue on a per-barrel basis (so far!). Sanctions work by slowly choking out the supply of dollars until an economy suffocates. A flood of new dollars DOES completely reverse years of sanctions. So unless you believe the sanctions were not working (which I do by the way) then this matters a lot.

      Western armories are running bare, but the same is true for the Russian ones. Both Ukraine and Russia are mostly using equipment as it’s being produced, and both Ukraine and the rest of Europe has been ramping up production capacity.

      Do you remember years ago when the Europeans themselves came out and said the Russians were outproducing the entire West in artillery shells 3-to-1? Do you think that only applies to artillery shells? The West has DEINDUSTRIALIZED after decades of neglect, outsourcing, corruption and financialization. The energy crisis in Europe is only shifting this into high gear.

      Both Ukraine and Russia are mostly using equipment as it’s being produced

      What evidence is there for this? You think the Russians have only made 2 Oreshnik missles? You think they are only making a few hundred Gerans a week?

      The high energy prices are a problem in Europe, but compared to the situation in Russia (or Ukraine, for that matter) there’s nothing EXTREME about it.

      This is honestly laughable. Europe is dying under the weight of their own vassalage. What do you think it means to have the highest energy prices in the world? How does that effect an industrial economy? Why did Volkswagen stop production at their main plain for the first time ever? Now it’s about to get MUCH WORSE because Europe was extremely dependent on Quatari LNG. That LNG isn’t waiting for the strait to open, it’s already not being produced and liquefied, leaving a permanent gap in the world supply.

      The reason peace negotiations have been hopeless, is because the Ukrainians and the Russians can’t agree on where the war is headed

      Well you could say that. The West believes it’s own propaganda which has been propping up this war for 3 years when it was already lost (the writing has been on the wall since the ill-fated Zaporizia counteroffensive). The pattern of big huge hype about any territorial gains, trailing off into ashamed whimpers in the press, has been followed in every disastrous “media counteroffensive” since: Kursk, Kupiansk, and now Dnipropetrovsk. THE UKRAINIANS ARE CRITICALLY SHORT OF INFANTRY AND HAVE BEEN FOR YEARS. LOOK AT REPORTS FROM ANY GROUND-LEVEL COMMANDER ON THE UKR SIDE. NO AMOUNT OF PRESS-GANGED RETIREES CAN CHANGE THIS.

      Who is right is up to us

      Spoken like a European

      every single demand that the Russians have is against some pretty fundamental international law

      Was it against international law when the Banderites engaged with their war against Russian speaking civilians in the Donbass for 8 years? Do you still not know about this because of how completely the wool has been pulled over your eyes by the western media? It’s game over. The media narratives are collapsing under the weight of their own failure. This conversation doesn’t matter any more for the fate of the current war, I’m only bothering so we can all spot the patterns if and when the West attempts to do this bullshit again.

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