the economy and stock market taking a huge hit
Two things that have also failed to manifest, in large part thanks to the prolific state spending following COVID.
Keep in mind, the event that really knocked over the tower of cards in 2008 was Greenspan’s decision to raise interest rates (very sharply) in 2007. Trump’s very obviously not going to do that. If anything, he’s been working overtime to get interest rates lower, because he knows cheap money = high (raw) GDP growth and low unemployment.
What we’re seeing isn’t recessionary. It’s a glacial shift in the economic priorities of the US, from a post-Reagan titanic banking juggernaut to a more-WW2-style global arms depot. The US economy increasingly makes cops and bombs and machines that assist cops and bombs. And there’s no recognized upper limit for demand on these goods and services. Not under current geopolitical conditions, anyway.
MajinBlayze@lemmy.world 2 days ago
The parts of the economy that would be heavily impacted by oil prices are already in the gutter.
theunknownmuncher@lemmy.world 2 days ago
Literally all of it. www.investopedia.com/…/oilpricesinflation.asp
You’re not wrong. Does not refute my claim though.
MajinBlayze@lemmy.world 2 days ago
Segregate the market into “AI” and “non-AI” segments for simplicity. Looking at the thousand or so “investors” who’s money matters at this scale, there’s no point in selling “non-AI” stock to fund “AI” investments already, these markets are already low. Adding the Iran war to that isn’t changing anything. More likely, they are borrowing against existing “AI” stock and reinvesting that (oversimplification, but speaking broadly). Additionally, one of the big sources of these loans is Saudi Arabia, which benefits from the higher oil prices.
The only other way in which oil prices impact “AI” is through energy costs, which impacts the immediate profitability of “AI”, which “investors” have shown they are unconcerned with.
Or, to simplify,