Yeah, the market predicts jack shit nothing until the insider trader enter it and the “market signal” due to the insider traders happen just before the actual events being “predicted” happen, making them a useless prediction unless you’re algorithmically gambling on a related domain.
Comment on Prediction market trader 'Magamyman' made $553,000 on death of Iran's supreme leader
WesternInfidels@feddit.online 3 weeks agoThe insiders make money because the “prediction market” odds don’t reflect reality.
Aceticon@lemmy.dbzer0.com 3 weeks ago
HumanOnEarth@lemmy.ca 3 weeks ago
That’s incredibly shortsighted and just wrong.
Are you saying Vegas odds do jack shit in predicting sports outcomes?
Same exact thing. Just more naked to insider manupulation. Which is the point.
HumanOnEarth@lemmy.ca 3 weeks ago
I still think you’re missing the point here.
Yes, insiders swoop in especially when the odds are not “reflecting reality”… because the profit motive is there. Which means that spikes in prediction markets are valuable information.
I’m not looking at it as a participant, I’m looking at it as a source of information. Crooked money, straight money, when there is money to made someone with information and money is going to take advantage, tipping us off.
It can be a degenerate cesspool of gambling and insider manipulation and also the bleeding edge of predictive technology… no reason it can’t be both.