A global, world-ending nuclear war is still unlikely at this point.

There’s a fair few steps in between filled with horrors that we get to pass first. Such as when superpowers realise that since nobody can realistically use nukes, conventional warfare is back on the table (e.g. if China invades Taiwan and the US intervenes, will either side nuke the other’s population centers? Probably not).

Then follows the realisation that superpowers can use nuclear weapons in a conventional war, but in a more tactical way (as a little treat). Don’t bomb a city, bomb a navy, or an airfield or army base instead.

Global nuclear war would only happen if a nuclear state is threatened with total destruction. But fully destroying a state hasn’t been the playbook for some time now. Instead, take whatever peripheral stuff you want, and strategically weaken the enemy state in key areas (e.g. take out an important figurehead, like the US did with Maduro, or fund/arm insurgencies like in Syria). Let civil unrest then do the rest and topple the government for you. Then use diplomatic/economic/military pressure to sway the fledgling new government into your sphere of influence. With a bit of luck the country itself isn’t totally ravaged and can become profitable fairly soon.