Comment on How can I learn to estimate the likelihood of real-world events?
AmericanEconomicThinkTank@lemmy.world 1 week ago
Generally yes there is TONS of theories and methods relating to forecasting and prediction. Its a very interesting field.
What was the link to? Cant seem to work for me.
Oh and just fyi AI models as most know them only run through outout as highest likely to be following a given chain, all based on trained data. The closest you can get to real “math” would be training a model to context strip metadata from an input, to very specific output, use that to input data into a database, have an actual program do the math or call relevant statistics, peform the calc then give the output. Buuuuut that is pretty much not done at all by anyone beyond custom written systems for specific use cases, and any forward facing companies having AI models arent much doing that, the output is a fluke.