But could this comparison not be done with some hysteresis?

It can, but analog design is also not my forte.

The part count is not important as long as the parts aren’t terribly expensive, since this is exclusively for my personal use

In that case, the original suggestion of using an ADC and an op-amp would be the most flexible for software. You would, however, need to do some research on wiring an op-amp to amplify the sense voltage to something your microcontroller’s ADC is capable of resolving.